With the midterm election now less than 30 days away, it does indeed appear that Republicans are headed for a monumental loss of seats in the House of Representatives and may also be in danger of losing control of the Senate if the cards fall just right for Democrats.
Tuesday on CNN, nonpartisan election expert Harry Enten said the biggest drag on the GOP with the midterm approaching is that President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains historically low for an incumbent:
“If his approval rate can go get north of 45 percent then it is a very, very different ball game and we still have a month to go. We are right in the margin of error where hey maybe if he gets higher he won’t be that harmful for Republicans nationwide.”
But can Trump, who seems to have a knack for shooting himself in the foot with things he says or tweets, manage to get even a few points higher in approval rating? Enten noted:
“Since the second World War we know that when a president’s approval rating is below 45 percent it tends to spell major trouble. There have been a number of cases where that has been the case, as this graphic shows, when that happens, we see that the president’s approval rating when it’s below a threshold, below 45 or below 50 percent that spells major trouble.”
GOP strategists are urging Trump to dial back the harsh rhetoric, Enten added:
“Republican strategists tell me flat-out, a five point swing [in the] president approval rating is worth 20 seats to them. When he was at 36 percent they told me if they say here that’s 20 seats they are going the lose.”
The gender gap is also a concern for Republicans in the midterm, with some polls showing Democrats have a 25 to 30-point advantage among female voters. That could spell doom for the GOP and Trump if women come out in record numbers and cast their ballots in opposition to the president.
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